#Al Thaer


Three years have passed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, violating international law and threatening global security. Despite Moscow’s expectations of a swift victory, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, managing to resist a militarily superior adversary. The conflict has resulted in immense human and material losses on both sides, with international support playing a crucial role in strengthening Ukraine’s defense efforts.
As diplomatic negotiations continue and global powers seek a resolution, the question remains: Can Ukraine endure if external support diminishes, and what are the real prospects for achieving a just peace?
In this interview with the Chargé d'Affaires of the Embassy of Ukraine in Lebanon, Mr. Oleksandr Ovtcharov, we examine the current battlefield situation, the role of international diplomacy, and the future of Ukrainian-Lebanese relations amid the ongoing war.

1- Three years have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. How do you assess the situation today? Could the war have been avoided?

Three years have passed since the Russian Federation launched its unprovoked, unjustified and illegal full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, violating international law, the United Nations Charter, and undermining European and global security.
Russian forces slowly expanded the amount of territory they control over the past year, mostly in the east of Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces made those advances as slow and difficult as possible and have staged a counter-offensive into Russian territory.
But they hit very strong Ukrainian resistance almost everywhere and faced serious logistical problems with poorly motivated Russian troops suffering shortages of food, water and ammunition.

Russia’s advances are embarrassingly small given the scale of its effort. After three years, the front lines have barely moved. This is a massive failure for the Russian military. Despite their numerical advantage, they’ve taken only a fraction of Ukraine, and at an enormous cost.

The real story isn’t Russia’s progress but how modern warfare has changed. Drone technology has fundamentally shifted the battlefield, allowing smaller forces to hold off much larger armies. The idea that military size determines success no longer holds. If anyone still believes Russia’s massive military guarantees strength, they only need to look at Ukraine to see how outdated that thinking is.
The answer to your second point is very simple - No. These are murderers, these are hordes, these are enemies who have been like this for decades and decades. How could this war have been avoided? Simply give up our right to exist. The issue of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine was resolved as soon as our country challenged the empire and declared that it wanted to be independent.

2- At the beginning of the war, it was said that the Russians believed it would end within weeks with Ukraine’s surrender. How did Ukraine manage to hold out? What were the factors that contributed to this?

Russians plans for “a blitzkrieg” and a military parade on Khreshchatyk have completely failed. Kyiv did not fall in three days, and Ukraine did not surrender in weeks.
Russia's so-called "second army in the world" could not crush Ukraine's will to fight. The price of Putin's imperial ambitions is hundreds of thousands of dead soldiers, thousands of units of military equipment, and billions of wasted money.
From this war very beginning, the world stood with Ukraine. Among them, Lebanon became the first in the Middle East to condemn Russia's aggression. Despite its own struggles, the Lebanese people extended their support, showing that justice and empathy know no borders.
As former US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently stated, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin failed to achieve his strategic goals during the war, while Ukraine “stands steadfast and has even become stronger.”
Instead, he notes, Russia has paid a “staggering price for Putin’s imperial stupidity”: hundreds of thousands of Russians have died since February 2022, and more than $200 billion has been wasted on the war. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank, Russia has suffered more losses in the first year of full-scale war than in all conflicts since World War II.

3- Every war results in significant material and human losses. What are the losses for both Russia and Ukraine in this war? Are there any official statistics on this?

Russia's total combat losses in Ukraine since February 24, 2022 are estimated to be about 700 thousand personnel, killed and injured. Every day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces neutralize an average of more than 1-1.2 thousand Russian invaders.
In addition, Russia lost at least: tanks - 8,940, armored combat vehicles - 17,740, artillery systems - 19,203, multiple launch rocket systems - 1,223, air defense systems - 973, aircraft - 368, helicopters - 328.
But this data could still change.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 16, more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died on the battlefield since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. He also stated that there had also been a total of 390,000 battlefield injuries.

4- How important has international support been for Ukraine in this war? Can Ukraine withstand the conflict if this support—especially from the United States—were to stop?

It is very important, it goes without saying. It would be difficult for us to survive without the U.S. military support. The Ukrainian president has recently spoken about his concern that Ukraine would be vulnerable to another major attack by Russia in the future if the U.S. does not continue providing military support. "I don’t want to think that we will not be strategic partners," he added.
He also said that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to come to the negotiating table not to end the war but to get a ceasefire deal that would lift certain international sanctions on Russia and would allow its military to regroup.

5- Trump has promised to end the war within a short timeframe, and recently, he had a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where they agreed to meet soon and exchange visits.

Does Ukraine fear that a resolution might come at its expense? Are there real opportunities for peace?
This is a very complicated and delicate question. Events are developing very quickly, and we are closely following them, welcoming any international efforts aimed at ending the bloody war.
President Donald Trump said negotiations to end the Ukraine war will start “immediately” after holding a “lengthy and highly productive” telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.
However, I don't think this will happen quickly, primarily because of Putin's intransigent position.
The search for mutually acceptable solutions continues. Our key position remains unchanged - nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine. Our European partners must also be involved in this process, and they fully support Ukraine's position.

6- How important is the diplomatic role of Ukrainian embassies in mobilizing international support for Ukraine in this war?

During the period of Russia’s full-scale aggression the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and embassies of Ukraine abroad are operating in the mode of so-called “Ukrainian wartime diplomacy”, doing their best to strengthen Ukraine, encourage international support for our warriors and open new horizons for our state, businesses and citizens in the world.
During this time of unprecedented obstacles and challenges, the Ukrainian diplomatic system has re-invented the principles of its diplomatic activity with the aim of achieving critically important results for our state.
Despite all difficulties, Ukraine, together with partners, created a global coalition in support of its resistance against Russian aggression, mobilized and continues to mobilize an unprecedented scale of military support from partners, confidently advances toward EU accession, maintains global food security, strengthens the sanctions pressure and isolation of the aggressor-state, and fights for justice.
Even during full-scale war, we open new horizons for our state, businesses and citizens in the world, widen our diplomatic presence and encourage investments into the development of our country.
Ukraine continues to develop the Ukraine Recovery Conference platform, the Ukrainian President’s “Grain From Ukraine” humanitarian initiative, the International Crimea Platform, the Peace Formula proposed by the head of state, as well as other global and strategic initiatives.


7- How do you assess Lebanese-Ukrainian relations and Ukraine’s relations with Arab countries in general?

14th December, 2024, Ukraine and Lebanon marked the 32nd anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations. Despite the serious prospects for the development of bilateral relations, primarily in the economic sphere and within international organizations, I would not be able to call them active enough. For example, the last meeting of foreign ministers, in which I also participated, being the ambassador of Ukraine to Senegal, took place at the end of November 2014.

But, when the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out on 24 February 2022, the international community was surprised that Lebanon was the first Arab country to condemn the invasion and to appeal to Russia to immediately withdraw its troops from Ukraine. In addition, Lebanon has officially backed all UN resolutions denouncing the Russian attack on Ukraine. The Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib clarified the position of his ministry by stating that Lebanon was against any invasion targeting other countries, especially since Lebanon itself was invaded and occupied by both Syria and Israel in the last couple of decades. However, Lebanon did not take any further steps (like imposing sanctions) against Russia due to the opposition of some political forces.

With the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Lebanon, due to the increased danger, had to close its embassy in Kyiv, but the Embassy of Ukraine in Lebanon is trying to compensate for this fact with its activity in Beirut.

Even with the increase of its problems, in the conditions of economic crisis, the Lebanese side has not lost the desire to develop mutually beneficial relations with Ukraine, which was evidenced in particular by the telephone conversation of the prime ministers of our states in May last year, which was followed by the visit of the Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine to Beirut. However, the Israeli military operation рфі hindered the implementation of our ambitious plans. Accordingly, I would call our diplomatic relations positively stable, with good prospects for a sharp intensification.

It is necessary for us that Lebanon continues to support Ukraine on all international platforms, including the initiative of the President of Ukraine, the "Peace Formula", to end the war in Ukraine.

This position was confirmed by the President of Ukraine in a recent telephone conversation with his Lebanese counterpart, General Joseph Aoun.

But the Middle East is also very important for us. You know that such countries like Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates provide support to Ukraine in returning Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia, the exchange of prisoners, etc. Without the help of international partners, Ukraine could not successfully resist the Russian aggressor.

Therefore, supporting Ukraine is an investment in global security. The war against Ukraine is a challenge not only for one country. Russian aggression undermines the foundations of international law and security, setting precedents for other authoritarian regimes.